ASTM E1369-2007e2 建筑物和建筑系统经济评估中处理不确定性和风险的选择技术标准指南

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【英文标准名称】:StandardGuideforSelectingTechniquesforTreatingUncertaintyandRiskintheEconomicEvaluationofBuildingsandBuildingSystems
【原文标准名称】:建筑物和建筑系统经济评估中处理不确定性和风险的选择技术标准指南
【标准号】:ASTME1369-2007e2
【标准状态】:现行
【国别】:美国
【发布日期】:2007
【实施或试行日期】:
【发布单位】:美国材料与试验协会(US-ASTM)
【起草单位】:E06.81
【标准类型】:(Guide)
【标准水平】:()
【中文主题词】:
【英文主题词】:breakevenanalysis;buildingeconomics;certaintyequivalent;decisionanalysis;economics;economicevaluation;economicmethods;mathematical/analyticaltechnique;probabilitydistribution;risk;risk-adjusteddiscountrate;riskanalysis;riskattitude
【摘要】:Investmentsinlong-livedprojectssuchasbuildingsarecharacterizedbyuncertaintiesregardingprojectlife,operationandmaintenancecosts,revenues,andotherfactorsthataffectprojecteconomics.Sincefuturevaluesofthesevariablefactorsaregenerallynotknown,itisdifficulttomakereliableeconomicevaluations.Thetraditionalapproachtoprojectinvestmentanalysishasbeentoapplyeconomicmethodsofprojectevaluationtobest-guessestimatesofprojectinputvariablesasiftheywerecertainestimatesandthentopresentresultsinsingle-value,deterministicterms.Whenprojectsareevaluatedwithoutregardtouncertaintyofinputstotheanalysis,decisionmakersmayhaveinsufficientinformationtomeasureandevaluatetheriskofinvestinginaprojecthavingadifferentoutcomefromwhatisexpected.Riskanalysisisthebodyoftheoryandpracticethathasevolvedtohelpdecisionmakersassesstheirriskexposuresandriskattitudessothattheinvestmentthatisthebestbetforthemcanbeselected.Note18212;Thedecisionmakeristheindividualorgroupofindividualsresponsiblefortheinvestmentdecision.Forexample,thedecisionmakermaybethechiefexecutiveofficerortheboardofdirectors.Uncertaintyandriskaredefinedasfollows.Uncertainty(orcertainty)referstoastateofknowledgeaboutthevariableinputstoaneconomicanalysis.Ifthedecisionmakerisunsureofinputvalues,thereisuncertainty.Ifthedecisionmakerissure,thereiscertainty.Riskreferseithertoriskexposureorriskattitude.Riskexposureistheprobabilityofinvestinginaprojectthatwillhavealessfavorableeconomicoutcomethanwhatisdesired(thetarget)orisexpected.Riskattitude,alsocalledriskpreference,isthewillingnessofadecisionmakertotakeachanceorgambleonaninvestmentofuncertainoutcome.Theimplicationsofdecisionmakershavingdifferentriskattitudesisthatagiveninvestmentofknownriskexposuremightbeeconomicallyacceptabletoaninvestorwhoisnotparticularlyriskaverse,buttotallyunacceptabletoanotherinvestorwhoisveryriskaverse.Note28212;Forcompleteness,thisguidecoversbothriskaverseandrisktakingattitudes.Mostinvestors,however,arelikelytoberiskaverse.Theprinciplesdescribedhereinapplybothtothetypicalcasewhereinvestorshavedifferentdegreesofriskaversionandtotheatypicalcasewheresomeinvestorsarerisktakingwhileothersareriskaverse.Nosingletechniquecanbelabeledthebesttechniqueineverysituationfortreatinguncertainty,risk,orboth.Whatisbestdependsonthefollowing:availabilityofdata,availabilityofresources(time,money,expertise),computationalaids(forexample,computerservices),userunderstanding,abilitytomeasureriskexposureandriskattitude,riskattitudeofdecisionmakers,levelofriskexposureoftheproject,andsizeoftheinvestmentrelativetotheinstitution''sportfolio.1.1Thisguidecoverstechniquesfortreatinguncertaintyininputvaluestoaneconomicanalysisofabuildinginvestmentproject.Italsorecommendstechniquesforevaluatingtheriskthataprojectwillhavealessfavorableeconomicoutcomethanwhatisdesiredorexpected.1.2Thetechniquesincludebreakevenanalysis,sensitivityanalysis,risk-adjusteddiscounting,themean-variancecriterionandcoefficientofvariation,decisionanalysis,andsimulation.1.3Thetechniquescanbeusedwitheconomicmethodsthatmeasureeconomicperformance,suchaslife-cyclecostanalysis,netbenefits,thebenefit-to-costratio,internalrateofreturn,andpayback.
【中国标准分类号】:P02
【国际标准分类号】:91_010_20
【页数】:15P.;A4
【正文语种】:英语